From Dick's burgers to Bill's software, it's now a job seeker's paradise for sure

Wednesday, August 11, 1999

By BRUCE RAMSEY
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER COLUMNIST

Twice in the past week I've waited while the worker at a fast-food counter fumbled, arms moving as if in a trance. One worker couldn't handle a half-off coupon; at another place, a man in line barked that he'd been waiting 20 minutes.

Welcome to the labor market of the '90s. Everywhere are signs that say, "Now hiring." McDonald's had a recent TV ad campaign -- to sell the idea of working at McDonald's. Locally, Dick's Drive-Ins recently raised its starting wage from $7 to $8.

"That's helped us," says Jim Spady, vice president. So has the company's offer to help with college tuition. Still, he says, "it's hard to get people and it's hard to keep people."

In King County, despite a year's downsizing at Boeing, the unemployment rate in June was just 3.2 percent.

That's the percentage of people who say they're looking for a job and haven't accepted one. Nationally, less than half (46 percent) of the unemployed lost their previous job. The rest either quit, had been taking time off or are looking for their first jobs.

Locally the market is particularly tight at the bottom. Jackie Armborst of management consultants Watson Wyatt recently interviewed employers. Those who hire the semi-skilled, she says, are struggling to find workers clean of drugs and who can read. Finding the right semi-skilled worker can cost $5,000 to $10,000, she says.

Much of the non-Boeing manufacturing around here would be cold and stiff if it weren't for immigrants. Ditto for 24-hour convenience stores: The one in my neighborhood is mainly staffed by a Filipino, a Chinese or an Ethiopian.

"I have a friend who runs a house cleaning business," Armborst says. "Her employees are largely Russian." The old employees train the new immigrants, and eventually leave for better jobs.

At the high end, those who have the skills in demand are cashing in, big time. The American Electronics Association said June 2 that in the computer industry in 1997 Washington had the highest average total compensation -- $81,400 -- of any state in the union.

According to Employment Security, average compensation for all workers in Washington increased 7.8 percent last year, up from 6.6 percent in 1997. Each gain was the highest since 1981. Dennis Fusco, chief economist, says that adjusted for inflation, the 1998 gain "could well be the highest increase on record."

That average masks wide variation. In most industries, total compensation increased 4-6 percent. Among restaurant employees and finance, insurance and real estate, including stockbrokers, the gain was 10-12 percent. Then came the computer industry, in which the gain was in excess of 20 percent.

"We looked back five to 10 years to see if there was a similar distribution," Fusco says. "There wasn't."

Much of the compensation in the computer industry is in stock options. That saves cash, and also keeps favored workers in golden handcuffs. But if the stock market declines, options lose their value. What counts then is cash, says Bob Holert, president of the Bellevue recruiting firm Houser Martin Morris, and, "cash doesn't tie people in."

In May, Microsoft Corp. said it was increasing its salary schedule from 50 percent of the industry average to 65 percent. "I think that's a realization that their stock options are much more questionable," Holert says.

For a man who's had just two jobs in 30 years, Holert is bothered by the mercenary attitude he sees. "Companies aren't oftentimes loyal," he says, "and therefore people don't feel they need to be, either."

He sums up, "There are kids out there making big dollars. When the cold times come back, they'll have a rude awakening."

Those who use boom times to improve their skills, and who don't burn their bridges, should do OK.

Employers may complain, but an occasional tight labor market is a good thing -- for computer programmers, to be sure, but also for Russian house cleaners and order-takers at McDonald's. It means premium pay for the well-trained -- and new chances for the untrained to move up.

Says John Mitchell, chief economist for U.S. Bancorp, Portland: "A tight labor market gives people chances they wouldn't have otherwise had, that will help them for the rest of their lives."

The twentysomethings who fall into this Nirvana are lucky indeed. Armborst, now a full consultant with the firm, remembers a string of dead-end jobs after her college graduation, including the typing of claims for Canadian fur trappers.

If you can avoid that, by all means, do. As my dad used to say, "Make hay while the sun shines."

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Bruce Ramsey's column appears Wednesdays. His e-mail address is bruceramsey@seattle-pi.com.

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